Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics

Monday. 6.30 a.m. So, after all the euphoria of England getting to the final of the Euros, the result was down to penalties. I have no interest in football, but I can't help but feel that this was a rather pathetic way to end the journey. Well, as they say, there's always tomorrow.  It's done the nation a good job of boosting morale after the 18 months or so of pandemic lockdown. If nothing else it's helped sell a few pints of beer, pizzas, crisps, and flags.

 It a mixed day on the weather front. 'Sort-of' rain when I went out Alfie went out at 5.45 am.

Later.5.00 p.m. Boris Johnson is on television leading another Downing Street press conference. Restrictions are to be lifted on Monday. I don't honestly think I can stomach any more of this stuff, so it's going off. 

Tuesday. 10.15 a.m. I've been out again with Alfie. I saw a slight glimpse of Toto, the little schizu that Alfie is friends with. I wasn't totally sure, as I only saw a slight glimpse of a doggy tail, but when we crossed over Oldbrook Boulevard I could definitely see him, and Alfie had seen him and was eager to catch up. The lady who owns him was with another dog-walker who had a black spaniel called Millie, who looked as if she must have been quite old by the way she walked. Alfie was insistent that we keep up with them and wanted to be in front of the party. For a little dog, he's incredibly strong and pulls on his lead, but this only starts up the rather nasty raspy noise he makes from his throat. 

So, is it 'Freedom Day or not on Monday? Restrictions have been relaxed and face-coverings will cease to be mandatory. It will be the individual's choice to wear them . . . or not. It all sounds a bit vague and likely to cause more problems as it solves. You might, or might not, have to wear them in confined spaces. The laws will become redundant. There are those who are saying that it's a risk to get rid of so many of the restrictions, but with the roll-out of vaccines being at a high level, and quite a high percentage of the population having two doses, it must mean that we are less likely to get infected and then be hospitalized.  We simply must take responsibility for our own actions. There is risk in most things, from the first breath we take when we are born, crossing the road, driving a car, and so on. Life is full of risks. This half and half response is annoying and it's almost as if the government doesn't trust the vaccines to do their job, even when it's clear from the data that they're working.

Wednesday. 7.05 a.m. It's bright and sunny as I write this. Nothing of any real interest to write about, so I won't, but, if you know me from reading these posts, I can generally write about most things, so hold onto your hats, it's going to be a bumpy ride! Oh, the excitement is too much.

From what I've been reading on the Lockdown Sceptics website, we are no longer in a pandemic. This from the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFA) Mortality Monitor released recently show that cumalative mortality in the first six months of 2021 in England and Wales is running 0.4% below the 10-year average, once adjusted for the size and age of the population. This means, despite the surge in winter Covid deaths in January and February that spooked the country into accepting ongoing restrictions, 2021 is officially now a low mortality year. The low mortality since March has entirely cancelled out the initial spike. So, why are we being fed a load of old tosh by the government? If the above is correct, and I have no doubt that it is, why are we being held in limbo by lockdowns? As someone said, possibly Benjamin Disraeli, the 19th Century Prime Minister, 'There are lies, damn lies, and then there are statistics. Why can't HM Government listen to more than one set of scientists regarding the 'data'? Or even a sort of median, a mixing of data to get a figure? Or at least break down the figures into deaths, age, whether people have under-lying health conditions etc etc. Instead we just get a lump figure that doesn't really show the facts. In that sense, not scientific at all.

It's Now Or Never!

Will we be let out of prison and on parole, let out on good behaviour? It does feel rather like we've been naughty children, let out by the teacher for behaving well, or more like prisoners, suddenly being told they can go home after being locked up for years on end. But this isn't because we've done anything wrong. It seems that July 19th is the date when things are supposed to be relaxed, but don't hold your breath or cross your fingers because there's always some scientist who will come out with some piece of research, some computer modelling which will tell us that it's not a good idea. Then I say, well, do you want to believe computer modelling? Do you want to believe the data, which is probably totally wrong because there are so many false positives with the testing system?

Monday. 6.30 a.m. A rather miserable rain as we went out at just before 6 a.m. The grass was wet and not helped by the annoying holes in my shoes. I'm just not buying Skechers again as this is the second pair which have let me down like this. I think I will buy a pair of Doc Marten's, which are a good deal more rugged and I can buy a pair for at a good discount. I fancy a red pair. Their factory shop isn't too far away so I suppose I could drive there and have a look at what they have, all at ridiculously low prices.

Later. 5.35 p.m. Boris Johnson has just been on television with another of the Downing Street Coronavirus press conferences. He's said that after 19th July we don't have to wear face coverings and should make our own decisions as regards a lot of the other regulations. Theatre can reopen (as can many other businesses which have been closed since the first lockdown in March 2020.). So, I say, lets all put our face masks in one big pile and then set fire to them, along with the paperwork which goes with the ridiculous laws that were introduced to keep the virus under control. Oh, that doesn't sound right. The virus can't read and wouldn't take any notice of such regulations. It's the controlling measures which inhibit us humans from having a real life and not locked in our homes for so long.

Thank you Boris, for giving me yet another title for my latest blog! The song by Elvis Presley seemed perfect for this latest effort. 'It's Now Or Never' is a reworking of 'O Sole Mio', which translates as 'My Sunshine', an arrangement of a piece written by Gian Carlo Chiaramello and sung by Pavarotti and probably best remembered as being used for the music (with reworked lyrics.) for the Walls ice-cream 'Cornetto commercials of the 1980s. As someone said, 'nostalgia isn't what it used to be'! That particular set of commercials plays on all the stereotypes you can possibly imagine when you think 'Italy', from opera-singing policemen, gondolas, Venice, Romeo and Juliet and a good deal more. It was somewhat misleading because Cornettos weren't made in Italy and it was just an ice cream that was concocted to be very like Italian ice cream.

Tuesday. 7.50 a.m. I didn't realise it was raining until I got out onto the grass outside just before 6 o'clock.  I am going to have to replace the wretched Skechers shoes which let water in through the soles. Just so annoying that, what should have more solid soles have worn through in such a short space of time. If the grass is wet from it raining, then it gets into my shoes and my socks get wet. Not good. Alfie was soon back inside in the dry and warm and tucked up back on my bed! He certainly knows where it's the most comfortable! I woke in the night and I could hear what must have been quite heavy rain, but by the morning it was back to being thin and almost-not-rain, if that makes sense.

Later. 4.05 p.m. I have written a further three sides of A4. I'm rather pleased how it's going. It moves things on considerably. I had to do a certain amount of research before I could write it to make sure some facts were correct. The internet is really useful for this sort of thing. 

The weather has been unsettled all day. Rain one minute and then bright sunshine. Some areas of Britain have had torrential rain, but around this area we seem to have missed it. Some really dreadful flooding.